Corona Virus

[steve briance]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-51979654

This is actually really interesting and puts into words better than I can the point I was trying to make initially.

It's worth having a read through it and think back to all the headlines that were floating about in the media 2 weeks ago. There is a very definite tone to what is being said.

I find it very interesting how papers have different styles and I guess depending on which one you identify most with could cause you to downplay my view as silly.

Even today expert estimates of UK deaths vary from 5,700 to 30,000. Horrific but not as horrific as the early predictions of 250,000.

I think we can all agree that what is clear is that no one really knows but the NHS will do their utmost best to care for people who do get it.

[Rikki Kitto]

I'm self employed and can't get a penny until June, what am I meant to live on for 2 months

[Henkjan]

Here most are, what's the situation in Holland Henkjan?

different kinds of help. goverment has made funds available, but depends also on the type of business.
many banks will give you some months where you can halt payback on loans
some landlords will accept lower rent for shops
for the self employed there is a sort of benefit, but that's just enough for food and rent, hardly for any business costs that might continue

[Fat Audi 80]

https://youtu.be/ejlbCmRJMW4

This is sobering stuff and should be compulsory viewing for all. Stay safe out there everyone...

[Ian Simmonds]

https://youtu.be/ejlbCmRJMW4

This is sobering stuff and should be compulsory viewing for all. Stay safe out there everyone...

As you say, very sobering.Thank you for sharing.

Sadly, I suspect listening to the A24 into Worthing, which is about 300yds from us as the crow flies, many people aren’t listening. Because it’s a bit quieter, Sussex has turned into the British Bike Grand Prix today, it’s been constant and friends of ours who overlook the sea sent a text saying they were watching about a dozen kite surfers.

[Fat Audi 80]

I can hear motorbikes out and about near us, I assume they are not grocery shopping as they sound like sport bikes out for a blat...

[SteveH]

I can hear motorbikes out and about near us, I assume they are not grocery shopping as they sound like sport bikes out for a blat...

Same in Bristol. Plenty of bikes gunning it around the local ring road. Hopefully the boys in blue will be out to pull some of them over.

[anthonys2]

Same with the idiots in the parks at London. Am guessing they don’t understand the term Lockdown?? It’s gonna get worse before it improves and we are a long way off that. If people listen then we can get through this but people’s arrogance and blatant disregard to what the government are asking is really pissing me off. I think the fine is £30 or something add another zero then people will take note. Rant over sorry lol. I would love to have gone out this weekend but I haven’t and I’ve got on with jobs around the house am more knackered than a normal weekend lol!! Please stay safe everyone.

[newsh]

[newsh]

I just don’t understand people, they’re completely stupid and selfish.

[david]

Let just hope things get better as we get closer to summer
the sun will hopefully be our saviour
as virus does not survive well in heat for long time

[Vorsprung durch Technik]

I despair, but then i'm not surprised, have known plenty of people of the years who won't be told and think they know best! I'm sure you all know people like this. It's mostly the young who are out picnicking sunbathing etc.

As for the virus not liking heat, its been 40 degrees in Australia and running rife.

Fat Audi 80 Absolutely agree, saw it yesterday on Fb. It struck a massive chord with me with my experience being put on a ventilator last june with organ failure ensuing fast. Even in normal times they only ever put people on ventilators when your life is in serious danger otherwise it's 6ft down, it's a simple as that. This virus is even worse in that even if you respond to the ventilator and your lungs are able to cope, good blood oxygen levels, you end up with heart failure anyway as the virus attacks that too. So many are dying of heart failure.

As is always the case there is always one idiot or in this case way too many who ruin it for the rest - meaning complete lock down possibly who knows.

One person on fb in a village group i'm on said, the police should mark the forehead of these people so when they to go to hospital they get brushed aside so they help a more deserving person who's behaved. Imagine if your loved one can't get help because they are overwhelmed? You'll not be happy!!

[Lago Blue]

Part of the problem with compliance is perhaps whether folks do conceptualize the enormity of what we are facing, separate from a more immediate possible health threat, criminal penalty, or looming death-toll, great or small. When you are trying to make sure nothing further happens, it is always hard to convince some folks to which nothing yet has happened. It is also difficult to point to a theoretical casualty and have everyone grasp the concept, or even more so towards a life saved and having said "See, the counter-measures are working", get total understanding from all quarters.

Big numbers in the headlines used to sell newspapers, but as those are disappearing of late, perhaps our focus can move onto other ways of looking at this too. Sadly and objectively, it is not the raw body-count by itself that matters most in any case, but the rate of serious infection's increase divided by any available NHS capacity to provide treatment for more persons (perhaps just local to you, or depending on the access to spare capacity elsewhere) in any given moment of the day or night. In short, new cases over time, space and resources. It is only that thin NHS sliver of "headroom" that separates those of us elsewhere from an Italian situation or worse. The gun shops in the States are apparently doing very well. Imagine.

Thankfully, some of the best efforts to try to lessen aspects of the predicted bad effects are lifted straight from the history books, simple, low-tech and working! It may be that in some respects, the flu we ought to be comparing this to is not seasonal but Spanish, hopefully never in the simple numbers but to the possible global societal consequences. For instance, an obvious first question (for later) might be, why are we so behind the eight-ball on this?

Luckily, folks involved in the science can see that some of these measures are improving the math, they encourage a re-doubling of efforts and can speak truth to power. Meanwhile skeptics seeing similar, may unfortunately view any forecast improvement as "See, it isn't going to be as bad as you said it would be after all! Told yah!" If only the virus could be coaxed to mutate such that it could both correctly recognize and only threaten those who cannot correctly make that distinction.

Because it appears that the virus is both less deadly and more contagious than others, that makes it incredibly insidious and in a way, more dangerous. By incapacitating and killing less of it's victim's, and thus keeping more hosts alive and more mobile without obvious symptoms for some period, it has spread much more quickly, and the likelihood of the virus remaining in wide circulation longer than regular flu is also more likely. Unlike to flu's now expected variations, it may be that no one has any previously acquired even near-immunity to this novel one, and we no medicines. Almost all of those folks on ventilators are chemically kept asleep and each of those beds takes what, five precious and vulnerable staff to keep operational? Our "NHS" here was already nearly full of winter's flu folk at the start of this, they've had to empty-out best they can, re-orient and sub-divide into with Covid; and without. In an odd (but not entirely unpredicted!) role-reversal, they (along with grocers, cleaners and many others too) have become the front-line soldiers and looking very field-hospital-like, particularly with the regular and reserve army now in the supporting role. Pity also those who must have to show up at a hospital for anything but Covid now. As the normal time-frame to develop and deploy any safe and effective vaccine regime is historically usually years plural in the implementation, expecting less than that now may be folly. Best practices in herd behaviour may for the time being trump herd immunity.

Despite expectations, currently, only a third of the cases here (Ontario) are folks over 60 years old and many were otherwise healthy previously. Some survivor's may face a life-time of breathing difficulties and perhaps other ailments. We have so much to learn, some of which will be a serious look back 100 years (despite the viruses effect's are not interchangeable), and yet so little time to produce a most meaningful effect. I shouldn't end this on a negative note, every crisis will present opportunities, the chance to be at home (and if off work, perhaps be paid something for it), ought to be seen as one of them. Some humour, if now a little grim. Many animal species, when faced with a perceived shared threat, whom we too generally regard as our lessors, react as one single entity, more cohesively, collectively and coherently than we. Perhaps rather than doubt their intelligence, we should examine our own; and simply mimic their good behaviour.

Cheers (Liquor stores have been declared essential!)

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[Fat Audi 80]

Great post Lago. I fear there is more to come from this virus in the next 6 months.

Best wishes to all

[RDs]

Not to raise panic but just a quick heads up to everyone in europe, lot of german factories like sachs and others have pretty much stopped production and some car repair shops are experiencing problems with parts supply. So if you planned to fix something while quarantine is in place, make sure you get the parts early. Funnly enough most impacted are newer cars where you change entire ''block'' of electronics instead of single part (khem single aluminum peace thermostat housings )
On other fields like electronics it's mixed bag, they change customs and border regulations weekly, one week you can receive packages from china, other times you can't. Truly odd.

Great post Lago. I fear there is more to come from this virus in the next 6 months.

Best wishes to all

Well here most people are allready counting this year as a writeoff. Traveling internationally is not happening any time soon, local travel has also been restricted, and only hope is august giving us better news.